The development of new energy vehicles is an important industrial strategy in Japan. As early as 2010, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan set a target for the popularization of next-generation vehicles: by 2020, next-generation vehicles will strive to achieve a 20% to 50% share of new car sales; by 2030, the market share will reach 50%. %~70%.

The Japanese government defines "next-generation vehicles" as "non-plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, clean energy vehicles, clean diesel vehicles, compressed natural gas vehicles" and other energy-saving and new energy car.

At present, in Japan, non-plug-in hybrid vehicles represented by Toyota Prius are generally welcomed by the market, while the market acceptance of new energy vehicles is relatively low. In this market context, the Japanese government has revised the next-generation vehicle popularization target. Among them, non-plug-in hybrid vehicles will maintain a long-term share of about 30% in the entire automobile market; the market share of traditional fuel vehicles will gradually give way to new vehicles. energy car. In 2016, the Japanese government formulated the "Hydrogen Energy/Fuel Cell Strategic Roadmap" and the "Roadmap for Pure Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles" according to the actual market conditions, and made moderate adjustments to the popularization target of new energy vehicles. Increased the popularity of fuel cell vehicles.

The advantages of electric vehicles are not prominent and the development is slow

The development of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Japan is slow, and the main sales market is in Europe. Zhong Lihong, a researcher at Shenzhen Pingshan Development Research Center, believes that there are two main reasons for this. First, in terms of energy saving, its relative advantages are not prominent. Market demand for pure electric vehicles is being squeezed by non-plug-in hybrid vehicles. Although the domestic car ownership in Japan is large, the main body is small-displacement cars, and the fuel consumption is very low. With the introduction of gasoline-electric hybrid technology, the fuel consumption is further reduced by about 40%, so the emission reduction advantage of pure electric vehicles is not obvious. Second, the price of domestic electricity in Japan is relatively high. The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan caused concerns about the safety of nuclear energy. The industrial electricity price increased from 13.55 yen/kWh to 17.53 yen/kWh, an increase of 28.4%; the residential electricity price increased from 20.37 yen/kWh to 24.33 yen/kWh, an increase of 19.4%.

High hopes for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Japan vigorously promotes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles mainly for two reasons: one is to ensure energy security, and the other is to promote the reduction of carbon emissions. In terms of ensuring energy security, Japan's external dependence on primary energy has always been high, reaching 94.6% in 2013 after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident stopped nuclear power generation. In order to ensure energy security, Japan has gradually adjusted its energy industry policy and promoted the reform of its energy structure. The superior performance and wide supply channels of hydrogen energy make the Japanese government decide to develop hydrogen energy and make it one of the means to improve Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate and ensure energy security. In promoting the reduction of carbon emissions, the Japanese government has pledged to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. According to the calculation of Toshiba Corporation of Japan, the fuel cell can reduce CO2 emissions by 49% compared with the previous heating system of domestic life. In addition, the energy consumption of Japan's transportation sector accounts for 20% of the total energy consumption of its society, and almost all of the consumption is petroleum products. Through the promotion of fuel cell vehicles, the potential for reducing CO2 emissions will be huge.

The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is still in the market introduction period

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are known as "ultimate environmentally friendly vehicles". They have the advantages of zero pollution and high battery life. They are the focus of research and development of new energy vehicles. However, due to the high cost of the whole industry chain, the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles faces great challenges.

In terms of integration cost, the relatively independent and complex power system of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles directly leads to an increase in the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. For example, the price of the Toyota Mirai is $69,000, which is much higher than that of other vehicles of the same level. In terms of the cost of hydrogen refueling stations, it takes more than 10 million yuan to build a hydrogen refueling station with a hydrogen refueling capacity of more than 200 kilograms. The high construction cost is obviously a serious obstacle to the rapid development of hydrogen refueling stations. In terms of the cost of key links, the purity of the catalyst platinum for hydrogen fuel cells is required to reach more than 99.99%, but the world's platinum production is very low (the global annual output is about 200 tons) and the price is expensive (about twice that of gold).

Hu Zheng, a researcher at Shenzhen Pingshan Development Research Center, pointed out that the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Japan still needs to break through four key technologies: first, basic technology research and development, including fuel cell core materials and fuel cell process mechanism research; second, Integration technology research and development, including fuel cell power system integration technology and vehicle integration technology; third, key component research and development, including air compressors, humidifiers and other important components; fourth, infrastructure-related technologies, including low-cost, low-energy consumption Hydrogen production, transport and storage technologies.